Articles by
Michael Barnard
China Is Scaling Geothermal District Heating & The World Should Pay Attention
By
Michael Barnard
When China starts scaling a technology at massive levels, the rest of the world should take notice. That’s not a geopolitical statement, it’s a thermodynamic and logistical one. China doesn’t mess around when it comes to heat, power, and infrastructure. And in the case of ground-source heat pumps used for district heating, China has been quietly laying down tens of thousands of systems, with over 77 GW of installed capacity by 2019.
Why Does Geothermal’s Messaging Sound Like Fossil Fuel & Nuclear’s?
By
Michael Barnard
t’s unclear what geothermal’s path forward is outside of conventional geothermal where it’s viable and heating and cooling provision with heat pumps. The capital costs of the unconventional forms mean they have to run at 90% capacity factors. While they might technically be able to be load following in the future, that’s not something that they will be able afford to do. They have to compete with much cheaper batteries for grid firming in any event, and natural gas peakers can’t do that any more, as California along with a lot of other jurisdictions are demonstrating. They can’t be built on the same footprints as coal plants and get anywhere near the GW scale capacity, so can’t claim effective reuse of boilers, turbines and transmission assets that are left behind.
Conventional Geothermal’s Untapped Potential: What’s Holding It Back?
By
Michael Barnard
Conventional geothermal electrical generation, where conditions are right, is an excellent form of renewable generation. It keeps chugging along day and night, offering firmed power with some of the highest capacity factors in the business and very low emissions per MWh. Yet, despite its many advantages, geothermal often gets left out of the clean energy conversation. Let’s dig into this a bit.
Geothermal Is Having A Moment In The Sun, But Black Swans Are Casting Shad
By
Michael Barnard
Historically, geothermal energy has been repeatedly touted as the renewable savior — clean, reliable, and providing essential baseload power right beneath our feet. However, despite periodic waves of excitement, actual global growth has been modest at best. As the current wave of enthusiasm builds, it’s prudent to ask: will this geothermal revival finally deliver, or is history poised to repeat itself?
US Cultural Revolution: Bonfire of NASA, NOAA, EPA, CDC, & USDA Climate Programs
By
Michael Barnard
During the Cultural Revolution, scientists and intellectuals were violently persecuted, universities were shut down, and research was labeled as counter-revolutionary, leading to a complete halt in scientific progress.
In contrast, the Trump administration’s cuts to NASA, NOAA, and other research institutions so far represent a more bureaucratic form of suppression, targeting funding and dismantling programs rather than physically persecuting scientists. However, both cases reflect a distrust of intellectualism, a prioritization of political loyalty over expertise, and long-term damage to national scientific progress. While China’s purge created a generational knowledge gap, the U.S. risks ceding global leadership in multiple areas of scientific research and climate science to other nations, likely echoing the stagnation China experienced post-1976.
Nikola Bankruptcy Just Part Of Crumbling Of Hydrogen For Transportation
By
Michael Barnard
Nikola, with its hydrogen trucks, has finally left the building. The company gained widespread attention after going public via a SPAC merger in 2020, briefly reaching a market valuation of over $30 billion. However, founder Trevor Milton was complicit in the SPAC pump and dump, misleading investors about Nikola’s technological progress—most notably, a promotional video of a truck rolling down a hill presented as a working vehicle.
California’s Battery Storage Fire: Precursor Or Outlier?
By
Michael Barnard
A fire broke out at the Moss Landing Power Plant, not too far from San Francisco, on January 16, 2025, prompting the evacuation of approximately 1,500 residents and the temporary closure of Highway 1. No one was harmed in the incident. Given the massive growth in grid storage battery systems, is this something everyone should be worried about, and is it likely to recur? No and no.
Canadian Transit Think Tank CUTRIC Riddled With Conflicts Of Interest
By
Michael Barnard
Four weeks ago, I didn’t know the Canadian Urban Transit Research and Innovation Consortium existed. If I’d seen mention of it, I probably would have assumed it as an innocuous little organization full of pleasant Canadians working diligently for the good of Canadian transit. But the onion keeps being peeled. Today’s subject is the full extent of the conflicts of interest that CUTRIC’s funding model creates for Board members, and how they just keep doing nothing about it.
World Moving On Without USA As It Declines
By
Michael Barnard
The world will keep a weather eye on the thrashing giant. Those like me who once admired many things about the country will mourn the loss of more and more checks and balances, the erosion of good governance, the continued increase of grievances of the working and middle class which Trump, his successors, and other Republicans will continue to exploit. The neighboring countries of Mexico and Canada will catch colds as the elephant sneezes.
But Europe, China, India, and the rest of the world will continue to move forward without the United States.
How Many Hydrogen Transit Trial Failures Are Enough?
By
Michael Barnard
Let’s cast our minds back to the turn of the century, when everyone was worrying about the Millennium Bug, blowing their retirement investments on pets.com and partying like the world was ending with helium balloons and dry ice. In Vancouver and Chicago, the transit agencies had another lightweight molecule on their mind, hydrogen. Both trialed fuel cell buses with an early iteration of Ballard’s still-not-fit-for-prime-time technology inside, putting three buses each on the roads.
Real World Hydrogen Refueling Stations With Electrolysis Far Less Efficient Than Assumed
By
Michael Barnard
Unsurprisingly, when it comes to hydrogen, the more real-world data collection and analysis that is done and published, the worse it looks. The latest black eye for the tiny molecule that so many love is in the efficiency of making hydrogen at refueling stations.
Hong Kong’s Climate & Hydrogen Plans Were Captured By Its TownGas Utility
By
Michael Barnard
With absolutely zero costs in the document, Hong Kong’s ‘strategy’ on hydrogen fails the Rumelt test. The fundamental problem with hydrogen is that in any form, including unabated fossil hydrogen, it’s far more expensive to manufacture, distribute, and use than fossil gases it purports to replace, and it’s far more expensive than electrification full lifecycle. In many cases, it’s just more expensive for initial capital costs.
I’m going to stop calling the document a strategy. It’s a hydrogen marketing and climate action delay document. From now on, I’ll refer to it as the hydrogen marketing document.
